China carmakers are projected to sell approximately 27 million vehicles globally in 2025, a 17% year-on-year increase that will likely see them surpassing Japanese manufacturers in annual worldwide automotive sales for the first time, after the latter has dominated sales charts for over 20 years.
The forecast, reported by Nikkei China, was based on carmaker disclosures and S&P Global Mobility data as of November 2025, and includes both passenger and commercial vehicle sales for both domestic and export markets. In comparison, Japanese carmakers are expected to sell just under 25 million cars in 2025, a decline from its peak of 30 million in 2018.
Notably, the gap between Chinese and Japanese carmakers sales was around eight million units as recent as 2022, demonstrating the meteoric rise of the Chinese marques in recent years.
China carmakers’ impressive numbers are buoyed by its domestic market sales, which are projected to account for roughly 70% of the total figure. There, new energy vehicles, including battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) account for nearly 60% of passenger car sales.
Nevertheless, Chinese vehicle exports have also continued to grow in 2025, undoubtedly driven by the intense price wars in its home country.
The Chinese carmakers are expected to sell approximately 500,000 vehicles in Southeast Asian markets this year, marking an incredible 49% year-on-year increase. Despite import tariffs on BEVs, exports to Europe are also expected to rise to around 2.3 million units, the report states.
Chinese carmakers have also excelled at many emerging markets, including Africa, which is expected to see a 32% year-on-year sales increase to approximately 230,000 vehicles sold, while Latin America is expected to reach 540,000 vehicles, a 33% jump.
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